Every second counts in cycling. In 2023 the top racers cycled the Tour de France for 79 hours over three weeks in a race decided by 214 seconds. In the past century, ten Tour de France races have been decided by less than one minute. In Greg LeMond’s thrilling eight second victory in 1989, time stood still as the French lined the streets and thronged to pubs to watch hours of drama distilled to peloton breakaway attempts and final surges in the mountains. One momentary lapse over grueling mountain ascents, harrowing descents or sprint time trials in variably hot, cold or wet conditions can cost top riders a place on the podium. The Maillot Jaune, or yellow jersey signifying the tour leader and ultimately the winner, goes to the rider with unparalleled strength in the hills, daring on the descents and speed in the flats. Yet physical prowess goes for naught without perseverance and consistency across 21 daily stages in the Tour de France.
An allegory for life, sports teach the importance of timing. Football quarterbacks know they have three seconds in the pocket to find a receiver before getting blindsided by an edge rusher. Basketball possessions are limited to 30 seconds in college and 30 seconds in the NBA. Olympic sprint distances in running, swimming, skating, skiing and rowing are won by hundredths of a second.
The difference between success and failure is miniscule in life as in sports. “Does time make the man or man make the time” remains a classic question of history because the two are inextricably intertwined. Abraham Lincoln lost sixteen elections before winning the US presidency with a conciliatory demeanor ideally suited for Civil War leadership. Winston Churchill’s abrasive style relegated him to a Parliamentary back bencher prior to World War II, but his indomitable spirit steeled Britain for its “Finest Hour” as the Union Jack withstood the German blitz. Dwight Eisenhower served in the US military for 35 years and would have retired in anonymity had not World War II arrived just before the sun set on his career.
Every Second Counts in Business
Timing is vital in business as well as sport and the martial arts. In 1990, George Stalk wrote a prescient book Competing Against Time: How Time-Based Competition is Reshaping Global Markets. The book highlighted the importance of time to market and scale just before India and China became a major force and disrupted global markets. The United States, and Silicon Valley in particular, gained ascendency as their companies ran at a faster pace than those in other markets. In recent decades, however, China has upended the traditional advantage of the United States. China builds its infrastructure ten times faster than in the US: its roads, 5G digital networks, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence data repositories and surveillance capacity far exceed ours now. Startups in Beijing and Shenzhen move with blinding speed and are competing with the best Silicon Valley firms for global preeminence.
Timing has long been critical for entrepreneurial success. Entrepreneurs have limited windows of opportunity to win new markets, and timing accelerated in the past decade with heightened global competition and rapid growth of venture funding. Pacing in startups is frenetic as founders race against an invisible clock to seize first mover advantage or follow fast to break away from the peloton and secure market leadership. In entrepreneurship, tales of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat are rife and we have many in our portfolio. Wharton has written a case study on Heptagon, which survived a cram down round valuing it a 5% of its prior valuation in 2009 before recovering and selling for over $1 billion in 2016. Paypal raised $100 million just days before the dotcom bubble crashed in March 2000 enabling it to consolidate the online payments space and sell to eBay for $1.5 billion one year later. Paypal’s success enabled CEO Peter Thiel to raise capital for Founders Fund, now a premier venture firm in Silicon Valley.
Venture investors must exercise more patience than cyclists and entrepreneurs. Venture investing is a marathon not a sprint as a fund unfolds over ten to fifteen years. Pearls cultivate over many years while lemons sour quickly. Yet investors are also on the clock. Investors are judged by ROI and IRR, which measures rates of return over time. Investments held longer require higher returns to account for the time value of money. Venture investors can play the long game only if their companies have the potential to return many times their initial investment. Father time thus dictates which portfolio companies garner additional funding and which are sold or closed due to lack of upside potential.
While the pace of innovation has accelerated over the past decade, we have now entered a volatile period of scarcer capital and a shift in emphasis from growth to value and from speed to efficiency. Time slowed in the past week as layoff announcements recognize tighter market conditions after a decade of frenzied growth. Amazon cut 18,000 workers after growing employment seven times from 230,000 in 2015 to 1.6 million in 2021. Google laid off 12,000 employees after a 150% increase to 187,000 workers over the past five years. Microsoft cut 10,000 after growing 70% to 221,000 staff in five years. While 40,000 layoffs collectively are modest relative to recent growth, their first layoffs in over a decade signal recalibration to new economic conditions and leaner times ahead.
Making Every Second Count in Life: The 1000 Week Program
Scarcity sharpens discipline and promotes efficient allocation of resources. We typically consider poverty as financial scarcity, yet CK Prahalad defined poverty more broadly as an inability to access opportunity due to financial, time or other constraints. We are often acutely aware of financial limitations but overlook time as our ultimate limited resource.
Wise men impose scarcity to reinforce a higher standard of care. Warren Buffett advises us to consider new funding commitments as though we have just ten lifetime investments decisions. Jim Collins, author of Good to Great, advised students to approach life as though we have just ten years to live.
These may appear to be artificial constraints until they are not. Whatever mechanism used, we are well advised to consider Return on Time Invested (ROTI) as well as its corresponding financial measure Return on Investment (ROI). We should always consider what is the highest and best use of our time.
With advancing years, self-imposed time constraints no longer seem idle thought experiments. Capital is fluid and may wax or wane. Time is fixed: all of us have just 24 hours in a day, 52 weeks in a year and a predictably finite lifespan. In Atomic Habits, James Clear reminds us that we bend inexorably in the direction of our habits and 1% incremental improvements through better habits compound and can dramatically improve performance over time.
Recently, I have adopted a 1000 Week Program as a new paradigm for lifetime goals and action plans. One thousand weeks is a sufficiently finite period to impose a sense of urgency, yet long enough to undertake major new initiatives. Weekly increments are brief, manageable periods to measure progress. Writing weekly reviews forces accountability and encourages daily mindfulness while allowing flexibility to live in the moment with friends and family.
After four months, the 1000 Week Program seems to have practically addressed Jim Collins advice three decades ago to impose both a sense of immediacy and long-term perspective in decision making. In a recent podcast with Kara Swisher on Recode Decode, Jim Collins described his own altered time lens. When asked about his current area of focus, he indicated he was studying renewal. As his mentor Peter Drucker was productive into his 90s (he wrote 25 books after age 65), Jim is now considering how he will contribute over the next thirty years of his life.
Perspectives change. Our vantage point shifts as we adjust the telescopic lens in or out. Regardless of the paradigm adopted, we do well to make every second count, consider the highest and best use of our time and deliver a high ROTI or Return on Time Invested. Time ultimately is the most important currency.
